鈥淯krainians will not react well to attempts to undermine their views and preferences and will rally behind their leaders," Olga added. "Opposition forces will also find a way to come together and show unity - everyone in Ukraine understands what is as stake - it is an existential matter. Ukrainians have been fighting to protect their independence for years, and they will not give up now.鈥�

鈥淏y inventing low approval ratings, Trump is preparing the ground for a call for quick elections in Ukraine - in line with Putin鈥榮 references to Zelensky as an illegitimate president and negotiation partner,鈥� said Gwendolyn Sasse. 鈥淥ur findings show that for Ukrainians, holding elections now is not a preferred priority.鈥�

鈥淲hen the war ends, we can expect normal political competition to reemerge if Ukraine remains free,鈥� added Henry Hale. 鈥淏ut with the Russian threat still looming large, Ukrainians continue to rally strongly around their leader.鈥�

As Ukraine continues to resist Russian aggression and misinformation campaigns, the researchers say these must be called out and rejected. Their findings demonstrate that Ukraine still stands with Zelensky, and they say that efforts to delegitimise him only serve the interests of Vladimir Putin.

The 2024 general election was the first in the UK鈥檚 history to be run under a system of voter ID. When heading to the polling station, people could only vote if they proved their identity first. This was the result of a law brought in in 2023 and that had already applied to local elections in England that year.

Using data from the , we tracked people eligible to vote between 2023 and 2024 and that 5% of people eligible to vote 鈥� nearly 2 million people 鈥� didn鈥檛 own any recognised voter identification. This lack of ID was concentrated among poorer and less educated voters.

Of course, lacking photographic ID is not necessarily a permanent state. Some people will have been in the process of renewing passports and driving licences during this period. All of these people would also have been eligible for a voter authority certificate, a form of identification brought in with the new law 鈥� although we found take up of these was low.

We found that around 0.5% of all voters reported being turned away at polling stations as a result of lacking ID in the local elections of 2023. We also found that four times as many people (around 2%) reported not voting because they knew they didn鈥檛 have the right ID.

The equivalent figures were slightly lower at the general election of 2024, but a meaningful contingent still did not participate. Around 1.3% of electors 鈥� or over half a million people 鈥� were turned away or didn鈥檛 show up at all because of voter identification requirements.

While administrative records can provide accurate numbers about how many people were turned away at the polling station, they tell us little about people who were discouraged from even trying to vote because they didn鈥檛 have the right ID. So it is clear from our analysis that the impact of voter ID on turnout is likely larger than previous estimates based on polling station returns.

Who benefits?

We also found that the Conservatives were more likely to benefit from the voter ID law than other parties.

This is not surprising when we consider demographic factors. , Conservative voters are more likely to own ID, because they are more likely to be older and more affluent. Despite changes in social patterns of party support since the 2016 Brexit referendum, this pattern still holds true.

The types of identification which are allowed under the new law 鈥� and especially the decision to allow older people but not younger people to use travel passes 鈥� exacerbates these differences.

Who didn鈥檛 have ID? 

The chart above shows the percentage lacking photo ID by general election vote intention, as measured in May 2023 (lighter bars) and May 2024 (shaded bars), shortly before the general election was called.

In 2024, only 2.4% of Conservative supporters were likely to not have photo ID, while 3.8% of Labour supporters and 4.1% of Reform supporters were lacking.

One notable difference is an increase in Liberal Democrats and non-voters with no photo identification in 2024, although this is almost entirely due to a change in the number of people supporting the Liberal Democrats or deciding not to vote rather than changes in people鈥檚 actual ownership of ID.

Liberal Democrat voters had the lowest proportion of supporters without voter ID in 2023 (1.3%), but in 2024, the Liberal Democrat rate exceeded that of the Conservatives (2.9%).

There are still opportunities to posed by voter ID. Ahead of the next election the new government should extend the forms of identification allowed (especially for those younger than state pension age).

Improving public awareness around the law and the availability of voter authority certificates is another important step. There are also suggestions that a system of who don鈥檛 have voter ID would be an option.

In an electorate of 49 million, if almost two million aren鈥檛 able to vote because they don鈥檛 have the right ID, there is a problem. Those interested in building trust in our democracy should consider not only minimising electoral fraud but reducing this number by as much as possible.

, Leverhulme Early Career Fellow in Politics, and , Professor of Social and Political Science, and Principal Investigator of the British Election Study,

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鈥淥ur findings may also reflect Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky鈥檚 recent public efforts to woo and flatter Trump as he takes the helm of Ukraine鈥檚 most powerful ally,鈥� added Henry Hale of George Washington University. 

Donald Trump has sparked controversy in the West with statements suggesting the US might scale back military support for Ukraine and focus on negotiating a peace deal, even if this compromises Ukraine鈥檚 territorial integrity. These remarks have raised alarms in Kyiv and among NATO allies, as they potentially undermine Ukraine鈥檚 ability to resist Russian aggression.

The study reveals that territorial integrity remains a non-negotiable priority for Ukrainians, with 57% agreeing that 鈥渁ny peace agreement that does not restore the full territorial integrity of Ukraine is doomed to failure.鈥� Despite Trump鈥檚 claims of being a skilled negotiator, scepticism persists about whether his administration could achieve a deal acceptable to Ukraine and its Western allies.

The research underscores the delicate balance required to maintain Western unity in supporting Ukraine. As NATO and the EU closely monitor Trump鈥檚 rhetoric, Ukraine remains steadfast in its demand for a peace deal that ensures sovereignty and territorial integrity.

鈥淭he Ukrainian public鈥檚 cautious optimism reflects a mix of hope and pragmatism,鈥� Professor Onuch added. 鈥淎s Trump and his new administration navigate these complex dynamics, the stakes for Ukraine and the West couldn鈥檛 be higher.鈥�

In the immediate aftermath of the tragic deaths of three young girls in Southport, far-right, anti-immigration riots and protests erupted, fuelled by the spread of misinformation and expressions of toxic masculinity.

Hosted by Professor Duncan Ivison, President and Vice-Chancellor of 黑料网吃瓜爆料, panellists included Rob Ford, Professor of Political Science, Hilary Pilkington, Professor of Sociology, Peter Knight, Professor of American Studies, David Gadd, Professor of Criminology, Bridget Byrne, Professor in Sociology, and Afzal Khan, Member of Parliament for 黑料网吃瓜爆料 Rusholme.

Attended by civic leaders, policymakers and politicians, the panel discussion covered a broad range of issues related to the civil unrest, including the role social media played in the rapid spread of misinformation and to what extent this acted as a catalyst for rioting across England and Northern Ireland.

While the UK is often cited as a nation that embraces multiculturalism, the hostility many face due to Islamophobia and its prevalence in the UK was raised. It was also discussed how anti-immigration sentiment is likely to become more prevalent in public discourse if far-right rhetoric among political groups, and traditional and social media, continues to rise.

On the topic of the motivations of the people who engaged with the riots, class struggles, toxic masculinities and family problems were remarked upon as potential contributors. The wider UK context, including the stripping back of public services and community centres in recent years, was also acknowledged.

As for the aftermath of the unrest, statistics from public polling were also shared. According to YouGov, 85% of the public were opposed to the summer riots, and 82% said they were unjustified.

In discussion on how to take learnings forward, a breadth of potential solutions were discussed from tackling social inequalities as part of wider strategies on cohesion, delving into the state of community services, and investing in social relationships. A need for social media platforms to adhere to their crisis protocols was also identified and, for the traditional media, a need for sensitive issues to be taken more seriously to prevent misinformation and for politicians to be held to account more effectively.

Members of the audience were invited to discuss what role institutions such as universities, schools, local politicians and policymakers, religious organisations and community groups should play in promoting societal cohesion.

Professor Duncan Ivison, President and Vice-Chancellor of 黑料网吃瓜爆料 said: 鈥淭he riots that occurred this summer were shocking and frightening for many in our communities, and I am determined that 黑料网吃瓜爆料 works collaboratively with our community partners to continue the constructive dialogue about the issues we identified at the workshop and identify actions we can implement together.

鈥淯niversities have an important role in bringing people together from wide sections of society and it was heartening to see a diverse group of civic leaders at the event, all with a positive attitude for long term change.鈥�

Ultimately, it is hoped the event served as a springboard for further discussion and meaningful action that tackles the causes of civil unrest, helping to prevent these events from occurring in the future.

Top image from left to right: David Gadd, Hilary Pilkington, Rob Ford, Peter Knight, Bridget Byrne, Afzal Khan and Duncan Ivison

Chancellor Rachel Reeves presented in 14 years by promising to put an .

British governments typically see budgets as an opportunity to present policies providing short-term gain in terms of public popularity, even if they do little to improve Britain鈥檚 long-term economic prospects. Over the past ten years, governments have adopted and then abandoned , and .

The last Conservative government鈥檚 budget contained a range of tax cuts, most notably a 2p cut on National Insurance. Little consideration was given to the medium-term . Labour inherited a funding squeeze, alongside the need to balance the books over a five-year period based on the previous .

This kind of short-termism is a within British economic policymaking. A winner-takes-all, majoritarian electoral system encourages governments to over a longer-term economic strategy.

Here鈥檚 how Reeves is taking a different approach in her first budget.

1. Long-term strategy

Reeves has underscored Labour鈥檚 commitment to long-termism through various institutional reforms. The government had already announced the creation of to drive a new industrial strategy. This will now be accompanied by a new to provide private investment into infrastructure.

The launch of the will scrutinise spending decisions. And the Office for Budget Responsibility鈥檚 role in of capital investments, government policies and departmental spending will be enhanced.

2. Investing for growth

Alongside a few surprises such as an uplift to the minimum wage, increased tax on private jets and the continued freeze on fuel duty, the main theme of the budget was investment-led growth for the long-term.

To that end, Reeves has around debt to enable more headroom for investment. She also raised national insurance contributions for employers to fund this investment wave.

These measures will be used to plough such as engineering, biotechnology and medical science. The chancellor committed 拢1 billion into the aerospace industry, 拢2 billion into electric vehicle development, and 拢500 million into life sciences. In total, the public investment will amount to .

3. Infrastructure projects

Reeves also committed to funding a number of high-profile . On transport, the TransPennine Route upgrade, East West Rail, and HS2鈥檚 link into central London were all green lit. She also to build 1.5 million new homes in five years. Additionally, 拢20.4 billion in R&D funding was also protected in the budget.

4. Regional growth

The budget highlighted the importance of , reflecting Labour鈥檚 emphasis on continued devolution . Reeves has committed to providing an extra 拢6.6 billion to the devolved nations through the .

She also revealed that the would receive integrated financial settlements from 2026-27. These moves indicate some ambition and long-term vision around empowering devolved governments to drive regional economic growth.

5. Public services

Another long-term focus of the government has been 鈥渇ixing the foundations鈥� of Britain鈥檚 . Reeves linked low levels of investment to . As such, she committed to significant spending on education and health, alongside 拢1.3 billion to address the crisis of .

These measures signpost a renewed interest in an to address Britain鈥檚 economic weaknesses and drive growth. Both require a focus on the medium and long-term.

Remaining challenges

Collectively, these measure suggest some long-term thinking by Labour, but do they go far enough and will they stick?

Delivering on a long-term industrial strategy requires greater , especially between the Treasury and the Department for Business and Trade. But other departments too, will be key to driving long-term growth and must be brought on board with Labour鈥檚 approach .

And while the integrated financial settlements will empower the West Midlands and Greater 黑料网吃瓜爆料, the approach stops short of fully downloading financial independence to the regions. A focus on selective regions also only adds to in the powers regions have. A systematically thought-out approach that covers the whole UK would go further, but remains remote.

Finally, while the government has spent big on education and health, real departmental funding is only set to . Pre-budget, about the effect tight funding settlements might have for non-protected departments, especially when these cuts come to bite .

The spectre this raises for Labour is that a short-term squeeze on day-to-day departmental spending risks undermining the work it has done to secure long-term investment for growth.

, Research Associate; , Professor of Government Practice; , Professor of Public Policy

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It鈥檚 not controversial to say that contemporary affluent societies do a rather poor job of taking the interests of younger generations into account. This is not only because children can鈥檛 vote and the elderly tend to numbers. It鈥檚 also because many societies have ageing populations, making them demographically stacked against the youngest.

In Italy, for example, . While the numbers aren鈥檛 quite that high in the UK, the phenomenon is still 鈥� with pensioners .

The neglect of children and young people in UK politics is evident. . and understaffed, and young people are saddled with high university fees. They also face a difficult and cannot look forward to a decent, safe pension. It鈥檚 also much harder for them to , compared with previous generations.

And that鈥檚 all without even considering issues related to the climate crisis or how dramatically shrank children鈥檚 lives and social circles. What is clear is that children are directly affected by political decisions and policies. But they don鈥檛 have a say in elections.

In some places, the voting age for some elections has already been lowered to 16. Research shows that young people are more likely to if they start at 16. Labour now proposes this for .

Many want the voting age to be lowered further, or . But any age higher than 0 leaves millions of child citizens without representation of their interests. That problem can be solved by giving children proxy votes from birth, to be cast by their primary carers. We can combine this with any voting age we deem right.

Proxy voting is when a person delegates their voting rights to another person to vote on their behalf. It is . It could work roughly in the same way with children and their parents or caregivers. Instead of delegation, we would use our registers of who is a child鈥檚 primary carer, authorising parents or legal guardians to vote on their behalf, if they are not yet old enough to vote themselves.

Giving children鈥檚 interests a voice

The idea of proxy voting for children has been and discussed by politicians for decades, but hasn鈥檛 been tried yet.

For some, the idea may be concerning, with fears that primary carers will use the votes in their own interests rather than the children鈥檚. Of course their interests are not exactly identical. But they largely overlap on the policies that matter most 鈥� from high quality childcare and schooling to generally improving the life prospects for the young.

For example, if prospects are bad, the young remain economically .

And even if a few carers use proxy votes badly, this is still better than not having children鈥檚 interests represented at all. Furthermore, we could restrict the number of possible extra votes per primary carer, so that people with more children did not have more votes.

Perhaps some would still feel that carers getting to exercise more votes somehow shows that society values families more than the childless. But this is a misunderstanding of proxy voting. It is needed simply to give children鈥檚 interests appropriate weight in our politics, given our demographics.

According to philosophers, there are two main reasons for giving people . The first is simply that the vote is a mark of respect for people as free and equal moral agents capable of forming and expressing their own and the common good of their society.

The second relates to the good consequences of voting: giving people the vote avoids many and raises the chances that nobody鈥檚 important interests will be overlooked.

Having proxy voting in place would likely make it easier to teach children about politics more effectively from an earlier age, and help them to become active citizens. But the main argument for it is simply that it gives weight to their interests in the electoral process. With millions more potential votes to be gained, we can expect that political parties would compete for these votes by committing to policies that are fairer towards the young.

When faced with the disproportionate political influence of the elderly, some philosophers have toyed with the idea of at least (as the Romans ). But many people think this would be a terrible idea: it would be a form of exclusion from politics. Adding proxy votes for children does not exclude anybody.

In lieu of a proxy voting system, if you鈥檙e a parent, this election is a good opportunity to start about the democratic process, the issues you are concerned about and why you vote. You may even want to take them to the ballot box with you. that talking to young people about politics can help them trust in their own ability to effect change.

, Senior Lecturer in Political Theory
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With polls predicting huge losses for the Conservatives and huge gains for Labour, the election campaign so far has focused on the battle between the two biggest parties in Westminster. But the parliamentary dynamics are exceptionally fluid this year. Here鈥檚 a summary of where every party in Westminster currently stands 鈥� and where they are hoping to be after July 4.

Conservatives: 346 seats and everything to lose

Sunak鈥檚 Conservatives held 346 seats when he called the election. They started with 365 after the 2019 election but have lost since then. Several other former Conservative MPs have defected to other parties and others have been suspended.

A hefty chunk of the party鈥檚 current MPs , leaving newly selected candidates to fight what is likely to be an incredibly difficult campaign for the party.

The Conservatives are almost guaranteed to be sitting on the opposition benches in the next parliament, with one recent poll suggesting they could fall to just 66 seats 鈥� their . This could put them in dangerous territory. It would be a humiliation for Sunak if the party performed so poorly that it fell into third place behind the Liberal Democrats.

Against this backdrop, winning 150 seats or more would be a pretty decent showing.

Labour: 205 seats and hoping for 400

The Labour Party won in the 2019 general election under its former leader Jeremy Corbyn. This has increased slightly since then, through a combination of defecting Conservative MPs and byelections. Labour with 205 seats.

The party鈥檚 in Blackpool last month, where Chris Webb won 58% of the vote, was the sixth time Labour won a byelection with a swing of more than 20% since 2019. This bodes well for election day, where Starmer will be keen to try to win a comfortable majority and, if recent polling is correct, in the House of Commons.

Scottish National Party: 43 MPs and worried

The SNP have had some spectacular performances in recent general elections, bringing 56 MPs to the House of Commons in 2015, 35 in 2017 and 48 in 2019. But the party has struggled somewhat in the current parliament. It has lost three MPs to defections and the suspensions of Patrick Grady following sexual assault allegations and Margaret Ferrier for COVID rule-breaking shattered the SNP鈥檚 previously clean image in Westminster.

The SNP therefore heads into this election with 43 MPs. The party is battling two fronts, with the Alba party threatening to split the nationalist vote and Labour looking to win as many of Scotland鈥檚 57 seats as possible.

Labour won Ferrier鈥檚 old seat in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection with a and polling suggests they will from the SNP on July 4.

Liberal Democrats: 15 seats and wanting third place

The Liberal Democrats won 11 seats in the 2019 general election and this has since risen to 15 through four successful byelections. The party performed very strongly in recent local elections, gaining more councillors than Sunak鈥檚 Conservatives. Party Leader Ed Davey had a lot of fun over the first week of the campaign and won the party a lot of in the process.

Seats like , where the Liberal Democrats lost out to the Conservatives by just a few hundred votes in 2019, will surely turn yellow. With the SNP predicted to lose many of its Scottish seats, the Lib Dems will be hoping that they can reclaim their position as the official third party at Westminster.

Democratic Unionist Party: seven seats and struggling after scandal

The DUP won eight seats in 2019 but technically lost one when Jeffrey Donaldson resigned . His seat in Lagan Valley has not yet been filled and will be hotly contested, particularly as Donaldson himself is not standing. DUP leader Gavin Robinson will have a tough battle in East Belfast against Alliance party leader Naomi Long.

Sinn F茅in: standing aside in key seats

Sinn F茅in won seven seats in 2019. However, in line with its abstentionist policy, the party鈥檚 elected representatives never took their seats in the House of Commons. The party has already confirmed that it in four of Northern Ireland鈥檚 18 constituencies and will encourage its supporters to vote against Sunak鈥檚 Conservatives in those seats. This should work in the Alliance Party鈥檚 favour. One of Sinn F茅in鈥檚 existing MPs 鈥� Michelle Gildernew 鈥� will also not be standing.

Plaid Cymru: hoping for gains on a new electoral map

Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru won four seats in 2019. They fell to just three MPs in 2020 when Jonathan Edwards . Edwards, who has sat as an independent MP for most of the last parliament, has stood down, as has Hywel Williams, a hard working Plaid MP who has been in the Commons for over 20 years.

Plaid will be hoping to retain Williams鈥� Arfon seat, alongside those of the party鈥檚 Westminster leader Liz Saville-Roberts and Ben Lake, both of whom won with comfortable majorities in 2019 with Conservative candidates in second place.

Boundary changes mean that most constituencies in Wales have changed, but the party will be hoping to win back Edwards鈥檚 seat in the new Caerfyrddin constituency and perhaps to add Ynys M么n, held by Conservative MP Virginia Crosbie in 2019 with a relatively slender majority of just under 2000.

Alba: fighting its first election

Former Scottish first minister Alex Salmond鈥檚 pro-independence Alba party only formed in 2021, so this is its first ever general election campaign. It did however have two MPs in the last parliament, thanks to defections.

The addition of Alba to Scottish ballot papers threatens to split the nationalist vote and will make the election even more challenging for the SNP.

Social Democratic and Labour Party: aiming to hold two seats

Northern Ireland鈥檚 SDLP returned two MPs in 2019 and will hope to retain them. The party has been inconsistent in recent elections, and even lost all its seats in 2017.

The nature of Northern Irish politics and electoral pacts between unionist and nationalist parties makes it difficult to predict what will happen here. The SDLP has, however, committed itself to fielding candidates in . Its leader Colum Eastwood won his Foyle seat at the last election, as did .

Alliance: hoping to take a key DUP seat

The centrist Alliance party, also specific to Northern Ireland, has never had more than one MP in the House of Commons. The party鈥檚 deputy leader Stephen Farry won the North Down seat for the party in 2019, though the DUP came a close second. Party leader Naomi Long will be trying to unseat the DUP Leader Gavin Robinson for the third time, having lost by 1,819 votes in 2019. She previously held the seat between 2010 and 2015.

The party has had growing success in the Northern Ireland Assembly, where it became the third largest party in 2022. Translating this into more Westminster seats will be tricky, but returning two MPs would be a good result.

Greens: targeting Bristol and Brighton

The Green Party鈥檚 one and only MP, Caroline Lucas, from parliament last year. She was the party鈥檚 first ever elected MP, holding her Brighton Pavilion constituency since 2010. The Greens are desperately hoping that former party co-leader Si芒n Berry can hold Lucas鈥檚 old seat.

The Greens are also eying up Bristol Central, where the party鈥檚 current co-leader Carla Denyer is standing against Labour鈥檚 sitting MP Thangam Debbonaire in what could be a real neck-and-neck fight. The party is already the largest party on Bristol Council. On a national level, it will be hoping to perform even better than the 2019 election, when it received a pretty respectable 860,000 votes. With last month, the Green party could hit 1 million votes this time.

Reform UK: causing trouble for the Tories

Reform UK had one sitting MP in the last Parliament, following from the Conservatives. Defections like this are how most small or new parties end up with House of Commons seats. Anderson won his seat with a 5,000 majority in 2019 and has a high profile thanks to his regular controversial contributions. But retaining his seat under a new party label will be very tricky.

Reform UK is fielding candidates across England, Scotland and Wales. It could take a substantial number of votes from the Conservatives, but the electoral system will probably mean that these votes are not concentrated enough to win more than the odd seat.

Workers Party of Great Britain: taking aim at Labour

This relatively new political party held just one seat in the last parliament, thanks to George Galloway鈥檚 Rochdale byelection success in February. Galloway will campaign to hold this seat and the party is hoping to woo Labour voters with its claims that Starmer is from Sunak. With a of candidates for such a new party, it could prove something of an annoyance.

, Senior Lecturer in Politics,
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Almost immediately after being appointed as foreign secretary, David Cameron鈥檚 ties with China generated difficult headlines for Rishi Sunak鈥檚 government. Cameron鈥檚 warmth towards China during his own time as prime minister prompted Luke de Pulford, the director of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, to argue that Sunak had scored an own goal in appointing him.

Cameron鈥檚 time in office has been described as a 鈥済olden era鈥� for UK-China relations. But now, in a very different political climate, de Pulford has accused the new foreign secretary of 鈥溾��. Catherine West, Labour鈥檚 shadow minister for Asia and the Pacific, has also said Cameron has questions to answer over what role he has played since leaving office in a Chinese .

Cameron鈥檚 position on China during his tenure as prime minister evolved from ambivalence to active embrace. Looking back, 2015-16 in particular was an active period in UK-China relations. A state visit by President Xi Jinping in 2015 not only provided Cameron with a chance to take him to his but gave a clear signal of just how valued China was as a partner for the UK.

The implications of this for the UK now, in an era of considerably cooled relations, will be complex for the government and others to navigate. As foreign secretary, Cameron is in a position of considerable formal power when it comes to foreign policy, yet his party takes a very different view on China than it did during his time in office.

Sunak has leant into that position, for example, by removing China鈥檚 role in the , which is to be constructed in Suffolk.

The ups and downs of UK-China relations

When the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition came to power in 2010, its opening offer on foreign policy, the , and , did not spend all that much time dwelling on China. The policies merely noted China鈥檚 continuing economic rise and argued that the UK should engage with it to resolve common problems.

China was bundled into a broad, rather vague category of 鈥渞ising powers鈥� that the UK would aim to engage with more closely. It was important, but not so important as to warrant its own category.

This 鈥渂undling in鈥� may also go some way to explain the first seminal moment of Cameron鈥檚 relationship with China 鈥� in London.

By hosting the Tibetan leader, Cameron triggered great upset in Beijing, which placed relations with the UK in a 鈥渄eep freeze鈥� for nearly 18 months. Cameron would ultimately relent, shifting his position on Tibet to more closely align with Beijing鈥檚. He publicly rejected the idea of Tibetan independence and .

Warming up

By November 2013, relations between China and the UK had opened up again and a rapid convergence between the two countries was in evidence. This peaked in the autumn of 2015 when Xi made his state visit to the UK.

At a , Cameron declared that China and the UK shared strong economic, diplomatic, and 鈥減eople-to-people鈥� links. He advocated for deeper cooperation on areas such as health, climate change and extremism and opened formal ties with China on infrastructure spending. He declared that the UK and China 鈥渟hare an interest in a stable and ordered rule鈥� in international affairs.

Within a month, the Cameron government had published an , which was much more expansive than the 2010 document had been on UK-China relations. It declared that it was the government鈥檚 鈥渁mbition for the UK to be China鈥檚 leading partner in the West鈥�.

This would be achieved through a close economic relationship in particular, but also deeper diplomatic and security ties between the two countries.

Cooling down

Ultimately, this developing relationship would be derailed by the EU referendum of June 2016, and Cameron鈥檚 exit from office. Subsequent governments led by Theresa May and Boris Johnson were focused on handling Brexit, but were also seemingly more sceptical of relations with China than Cameron had been.

Several issues, including the question of democracy in Hong Kong, human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and Chinese espionage activity in the UK, have caused Conservative MPs to increasingly embrace a hawkish perspective on China. While Liz Truss was more clearly China-sceptic than Sunak, none of the prime ministers who have followed Cameron in office have been close to his level of dovishness on the topic.

The risks to the UK government, then, are twofold. Cameron鈥檚 ties with China have the potential to aggravate tensions with backbench MPs who are already restive. His party is currently divided over any number of other issues and primed to fall out over any number of others. The possibility of a dispute over the new foreign secretary鈥檚 position on China adding further inflaming tensions in the Conservative party are high.

Meanwhile, a noticeable gap in intentions between senior members of the government risks sending confusing signals to China. This is a problem for slower burning issues such as the being incurred by countries that have accepted Chinese investment via the belt and road initiative.

Cameron鈥檚 own advocacy for projects in countries like Sri Lanka, now dealing with the legacy of the initiative, may muddle messages. There is also the possibility of confusing messaging if a major crisis erupts 鈥� over the upcoming Taiwanese election, for example.

Beijing may now expect a softer approach where none is on offer. Cameron may appear to signal a less assertive response to a crisis where it was not intended. Miscalculation is always a risk in international crises and if Beijing perceives its western backers as internally divided, it may seek to capitalise for its own geopolitical gain.

Together, then, the legacy of Cameron鈥檚 relationship with China in office poses significant risks for both the Conservative Party, and for UK-China relations. Navigating these risks will be a challenge for all concerned.

For his part, greater clarity from Cameron on what he thinks UK-China relations should look like may provide some breathing space 鈥� but that may also simply serve to highlight these divisions. Ultimately, it will be up to Cameron鈥檚 current boss, Rishi Sunak, to try and resolve these tensions 鈥� ideally, before a major crisis breaks.

, Lecturer in British Politics and Public Policy,

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Mr Yushchenko added: 鈥淲e enjoyed our tour of John Rylands Library, which is stunningly beautiful and holds so many unique treasures. Oh, and as an avid beekeeper, I was thrilled to see that the symbol of your wonderful and historic city of 黑料网吃瓜爆料 is the brilliant and hard-working bee!鈥� 

鈥淚t was a great honour for 黑料网吃瓜爆料 to host President Yushchenko and the First Lady for the lecture and visit,鈥� said Professor Fiona Devine, Vice-President and Dean of Humanities, who was the senior host for the visit. 鈥淭he 黑料网吃瓜爆料 region has strong links with Ukraine, and the University is also home to a growing number of Ukrainian students who were delighted to be able to meet President Yushchenko personally. The University looks forward to continuing its support for our students.鈥�

"Our hosting the President and First Lady Yushchenko was an opportunity to not only showcase the University, but also to discuss possible future cooperation between our staff and students and those at leading universities in Ukraine," said 黑料网吃瓜爆料鈥檚 Professor of Comparative and Ukrainian Politics Olga Onuch. "The president stressed his thanks for the support people in the UK - and 黑料网吃瓜爆料 specifically - have given to Ukraine and the ordinary Ukrainians who had to temporarily flee their homes.

"Our Politics students reported later in class that they were inspired by the President鈥檚 words, and they were hugely thankful to have had the unique opportunity to personally meet a world leader that lead a people鈥檚 revolution. This is exactly what we should be doing as a global University - inspiring the leaders of tomorrow by building bridges and partnerships with the leaders of today."

What鈥檚 changed since 1997?

The mid-1990s saw a wave of protests . Immediately before the 1997 election, they produced their iconic figure, , who stayed for a week in an underground tunnel to prevent diggers from accessing the construction site.

In the lead-up to 2023, there has similarly been a lot of direct action by protesters against cars. The first Extinction Rebellion protest entailed . and have blocked motorways.

Then, as now, a Conservative government lurching from crisis to crisis has sought popular issues to revive its fortunes. In 1997, the Tories were embroiled in a series of corruption scandals and nurturing an internal war over the EU. The parallels with their situation today require no explanation.

But there are important differences. It鈥檚 striking how little reinforcement of the 鈥渧oters as car drivers鈥� rhetoric there has been since 1997. Both parties have introduced and promoted steadily more ambitious action on climate change, in ways that have had knock-on effects for explicitly pro-car strategies.

Successive governments (both Labour and Conservative) have introduced:

• , then emissions, charging, first in London, then in
• in most towns and cities
• changes to that favour pedestrians and cyclists
• regenerated in some cities
• , now the object of much opposition, including from Sunak.

Because of these changes, Sunak鈥檚 championing of motorists today works differently to the Mondeo man appeal in 1997. Then, both major parties agreed on the social and economic value of the car and sought to sideline and undermine the road protest campaigns. Both shored up this pro-car ideology and competed over who could best serve it.

Two pro-car parties

In practice, there remains little difference between the two parties on the question of cars. Both assume that society will continue to be dominated by cars, but both have introduced enough (modest) policies to limit car use and promote alternatives. To actively promote cars now requires a clearer affirmation and creates the possibility of using it as a wedge issue to attack the opposition with.

These attempts are largely ridiculous. Labour is more or less still as pro-car as the Tories (hence the absurdity of trying to claim Labour is on the side of ), and partly because many of the initiatives now being attacked by Sunak were themselves developed and promoted by the Conservatives, most notably the ultra low emissions zone, which was .

Sunak鈥檚 pro-car rhetoric is explicitly nostalgic. To reclaim the Conservatives as the party of motorists, Sunak must return to Margaret Thatcher and sit in her Rover, recalling a golden age that must be restored.

This rhetoric also borrows from populists undermining climate policy more generally, because the political logic of promoting cars is now one of backlash which claims 鈥渢he people鈥� have lost out from the various anti-car initiatives of both parties. Sunak takes his cues from the Net Zero Scrutiny Group and the All Party Parliamentary Group on Fair Fuel, coalitions of MPs that climate action in UK politics.

If the Conservatives continue with this line of attack against Labour through to the next election, that poll will be about the future of Britain鈥檚 climate strategy. After all, more ambitious climate action demands .

It is not clear if Sunak鈥檚 pro-car nostalgia will work. But whether or not it does will reveal a lot about the necessary conditions for attaining more aggressive climate action, which will inevitably involve changes in how people live their lives 鈥� from the transport they use and how often, as well as in many other areas.

, Professor of International Politics,

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鈥淭he appointment of the first Professor of Comparative and Ukrainian Politics is long overdue in the English speaking world and is a major milestone, not only for the Ukrainian community in the UK but also globally,鈥� said Anna Dezyk MBE, Deputy Chair of the Association of Ukrainians in Great Britain (AUGB). 鈥淧rofessor Onuch's enthusiasm and extensive expertise in this area provides a fantastic platform for the study of Ukrainian Politics to finally move out of the shadows and take its rightful place in academia.鈥�

鈥満诹贤怨媳镶�檚 creation of this post could not have come at a more relevant time, and the appointment of Professor Olga Onuch could not be more appropriate and richly deserved,鈥� said Leigh Gibson OBE, Ukraine Director for the British Council. 鈥淲e look forward to continuing our collaboration with Olga and her department to understand more about the role young people have played in the development of Ukraine as a democratic nation, and the critical contribution they will make to recovery and rebuilding in the future.鈥�

"It has never been more important for Ukraine to be genuinely understood and appreciated internationally," said Volodymyr Sheiko, Director General of the Ukrainian Institute. "Much of the knowledge about Ukraine, its history, politics, and culture emerges from leading academic institutions to inform public policies, curricula, and public opinion. Academic excellence makes our societies better informed and more resilient. The appointment of Olga Onuch as the first Professor of Ukrainian Politics in the English-speaking world is a crucial milestone to achieve this. I am confident that Olga鈥檚 profound experience and expertise will set a high standard for others to follow.鈥�

On Resilience, a collection of articles drawing on research from University of 黑料网吃瓜爆料 academics, examines a range of solutions to strengthen our national resilience.

Matthew Paterson, Professor of International Politics, writes that the war in Ukraine 鈥渉as underscored how crucial geopolitical dynamics are to thinking about the future of energy.鈥�

He makes a series of policy recommendations to maintain the Government鈥檚 transition to net zero 鈥渨hile focusing on those elements that minimise geopolitical risks.鈥�

These include a drive to reduce energy demand with an emphasis on weaning the UK economy off its dependence on natural gas, which the conflict in Ukraine has graphically highlighted.

Professor Paterson argues that decarbonising housing through heat pumps and electric cooking can also strengthen national resilience and advocates new policies to shift the population away from private car use in favour of public transport, coupled with additional investment in road transport electrification 鈥渢o minimise exposure to oil price volatility.鈥�

And he makes the case for domestic renewable electricity generation to be accelerated, commenting: 鈥淭here is significant untapped potential both for onshore wind and solar, which have largely been hampered by regulatory blockages that need reversing.鈥�

Timothy Foster, Senior Lecturer in Water-Food Security, advises the UK to learn from countries with water scarcity pressures in order to address water risks faced by the domestic agricultural sector.   He writes: 鈥淥ur  in places such as North America has shown that flexible abstraction rules and arrangements for sharing water, including trading systems, can significantly enhance farmers鈥� ability to manage drought risks and adapt to changing climate conditions.鈥�

At the same time, Dr Foster argues that there is an urgent need for 鈥渞obust improvements in infrastructure and support for the data collection and monitoring of agricultural water use and productivity鈥� which he describes as 鈥渃hronically underfunded and poorly prioritised.鈥�

More broadly, Dr Foster argues that greater investment in infrastructure for water storage should also be a key Government priority 鈥渂oth in the form of on-farm and larger-scale multi-use reservoirs, and the use of nature-based solutions, such as restoring natural wetlands.鈥�

Other policy challenges addressed in On Resilience include the positive roles AI and smart technology can play to mitigate risks to food production, the growing threat of antimicrobial resistance and how best to meet the UK鈥檚 critical metal requirements whilst avoiding unnecessary damage to the environment.

The 40-page document 鈥� published by the University's policy engagement unit, Policy@ 黑料网吃瓜爆料 - includes a foreword from Lord Howell of Guildford, the former Energy Secretary and only Minister to have served in the Heath, Thatcher and Cameron governments.

He describes On Resilience as a 鈥渢houghtful and balanced series of essays on a subject of such vast complexity, importance and contention as our future energy supplies and their tangled relationship with oncoming climate violence which threaten us all.鈥�

Lord Howell, also a past President of the British Institute of Energy Economists, writes: 鈥淏alance and realism are qualities very badly needed in tackling the many dilemmas and obstacles ahead, yet they seem in very short supply.鈥�

He adds: 鈥淣one of these questions can be met with neat answers or solutions. But they can be addressed with shrewd analysis and fearless posing of the issues. That is what these wise and expert essayists from 黑料网吃瓜爆料 offer.鈥�

On Resilience is now available to read on the Policy@ 黑料网吃瓜爆料 website -